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At Huntington, the variables used in the models for the 2008 nowcast are as follows: Season 1 (May 19-July 23)--(1) wave height, (2) rainfall at Hopkins Airport during the previous 48 hours with the most recent rainfall receiving the most weight, (3) log turbidity (the logarithm of the measured water clarity), (4) number of dry days preceding the current day, and (5) day of the year. The threshold probability for issuing an advisory using this model is 28 percent. Season 2 (July 24-Sept 5)--(1) wave height, (2) rainfall at Hopkins Airport during the previous 48 hours with the most recent rainfall receiving the most weight, (3) log turbidity, and (4) day of the year. The threshold probability for issuing an advisory using this model is 27 percent. At Edgewater, the variables used in the models for the 2008 nowcast are as follows: Season 1 (May 19-June 17)--(1) wave height, (2) radar rainfall from two 4-km grids surrounding the beach during the previous 48 hours with the most recent rainfall receiving the most weight, and (3) log turbidity. The threshold probability for issuing an advisory using this model is 27 percent. Season 2 (June 18-Aug 13)--(1) wave height, (2) radar rainfall from two 4-km grids surrounding the beach during the previous 48 hours with the most recent rainfall receiving the most weight, (3) log turbidity, and (4) lake level. The threshold probability for issuing an advisory using this model is 30 percent. Season 3 (August 14-Sept 5)--(1) wave height, (2) log turbidity, and (3) lake level. The threshold probability for issuing an advisory using this model is 32 percent.
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We would like to thank Steve Lawrence with the USGS Georgia Water Science Center for help with design suggestions and images. |
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The URL for this page is http://www.ohionowcast.info/ohionowcastfindoutmore.htm For comments or changes regarding this Web page, please contact
Donna Francy |
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Nowcast data are updated daily; last Web page update: July 2, 2008. |
During 2008, two models will be used at Huntington and three models will be used at Edgewater. Which model is used is based on the date; that is, a different model is used at the beginning of the season than at the end of the season. Using different mathematical formulas and different variables in the models for different times of the year will hopefully minimize the percentage of incorrect predictions provided by the models in 2008.