At Huntington, nowcasts were provided to the public for 639 days during the recreational season of 2006-12.

• The nowcast provided a correct response 84.5 percent of time.
• The sensitivity of the nowcast was 55.9 percent. That means that the nowcast correctly predicted that the standard was exceeded on 57 out of 102 days that the standard was actually exceeded.
• The specificity of the nowcast was 89.9 percent. That means that the nowcast correctly predicted that the standard was NOT exceeded on 483 out of 537 days that the standard was actually NOT exceeded.

The Huntington nowcast provided more accurate information and better estimates of public health risk than the use of the previous day’s E. coli (the current method used by most beach managers.), especially in regard to sensitivity. In addition, nowcast results have been consistent from year-to-year.

• The previous day’s E. coli provided a correct response 75.8 percent of time.
• The sensitivity of using the previous days E. coli was 22.4 percent. That means that the current method correctly predicted that the standard was exceeded on only 21 out of 93 days that the standard was actually exceeded.
• The specificity of using the previous days E. coli was 85.8 percent, slightly lower than using the nowcast.

At Edgewater, nowcasts were provided to the public for 584 days during the recreational season of 2008-12.

• The nowcast provided a correct response 75.9 percent of time.
• The sensitivity of the nowcast was 57.1 percent. That means that the nowcast correctly predicted that the standard was exceeded on 76 out of 113 days that the standard was actually exceeded.
• The specificity of the nowcast was 81.4 percent. That means that the nowcast correctly predicted that the standard was NOT exceeded on 367 out of 451 days that the standard was actually NOT exceeded.

Although the Edgewater nowcast provided more accurate information and better estimates of public health risk than the use of the previous day’s E. coli (the current method used by most beach managers.), more work needs to be done to improve the accuracy of the Edgewater nowcast, especially in regards to specificity.

• The previous day’s E. coli provided a correct response 71.2 percent of time.
• The sensitivity of using the previous days E. coli was 36.2 percent. That means that the current method correctly predicted that the standard was exceeded on only 46 out of 127 days that the standard was actually exceeded.
• The specificity of using the previous days E. coli was 81.3 percent, about the same as using the nowcast.
• Work will continue in 2013 to measure additional variables that may be used to improve the specificity of the Edgewater nowcast. These include foreshore head and photosynthetically-active radiation.

At Maumee Bay State Park, nowcasts were provided to the public for 58 days during the recreational season of 2012. The nowcast was able to provide more correct responses than the use of the previous day’s E. coli, in terms of both sensitivity and specificity.
   

At Cuyahoga Valley National Park, nowcasts provided to the public for 37 days during the recreational season of 2012. The nowcast was able to provide more correct responses than the use of the previous day’s E. coli, in terms of both sensitivity and specificity.
 

At Villa Angela, nowcasts were provided to the public for 87 days during the recreational season of 2012. The nowcast was able to provide more correct responses than the use of the previous day’s E. coli, in terms of both sensitivity and specificity.