Ohio Nowcast.
Welcome to the Ohio Nowcast for Maumee Bay State Park Lake Erie Beach

Maumee BayMaumee Bay State Park is operated by Ohio Department of Natural Resources.  The nowcast has been used at the Lake Erie beach since 2011.

The nowcast is for the Lake Erie beach only. For water-quality information on the inland beach at Maumee Bay State Park, refer to Ohio Department of Health beach monitoring results.

The information on this page is updated by the University of Toledo, Lake Erie Center by 9:30 AM (EDT) 5 days/week during the swimming season. This nowcast issues advisories and predicts the probability of exceeding the E. coli bathing-water standard once a day at the posted time only. Storms are likely to result in a quick change in water quality.

For information on advisories from harmful algal blooms (HABs), which are different than Ohio Nowcast advisories based on E. coli concentrations, refer to the Ohio EPA HAB map.

For futher information, contact Pam Struffolino, University of Toledo (pamela.struffolino@utoledo.edu, 419-530-8380).

Beach
Date / time
Beach Advisory Information

Maumee Bay

8/20/2014   8:20:00 AM
A swimming advisory is NOT in effect at this time
 
Beach
Date / time

Probability that E. coli exceeds the  safe level (percent)

Water temperature (degrees F)
Predicted water quality
Maumee Bay
8/20/2014   8:20:00 AM
16.7

71.7

Good
 
Beach
Date
Culture method (MPN / 100 mL)
Maumee Bay
8/20/2014
Maumee Bay
8/19/2014
324
Maumee Bay
8/18/2014
191
 

RP: Results pending
NS: No sample collected on this date.

Variables used in the Maumee Bay State Park nowcast models

For Maumee Bay State Park Lakeside Beach, two models were initially developed; which model was used was dependent on the direction of flow in Berger Ditch. Because the Berger Ditch discharge station is being moved to a new location, beginning on July 28, if positive flow was observed in Berger Ditch, the "positive flow" model was used. If negative flow was observed in Berger Ditch or flow direction was uncertain, an alternative model (without discharge) was used.

Models in the Maumee Bay State Park nowcast―2014

 

Positive flow in Berger Ditch

Negative flow in Berger Ditch

Alternative model (no discharge)

VARIABLES

 

 

 

Turbidity

X

X

 

Discharge in Berger Ditch, 7:30 a.m. instantaneous

 

X  

Solar radiation, previous day total (OARDC North Central Station)

 

X

X

Lake level, change in 24 hours (Toledo station 9063085)

 

X

 

Wind code at 8 a.m. (Toledo Executive Airport, formerly Metcalf Field)

X

X

 

Sum of the wind code for the previous 4 hours X log turbidity    

X

THRESHOLD PROBABILITY

35%

40%

35%

a wind code (2 categories) is based on wind direction —N to E winds are coded as “1” and all other wind directions and no wind are coded as “0.1”.

 

View seasonal data on E. coli concentrations and water quality.

Data Upload (restricted access)
For comments or changes regarding this Web page, please contact:
Donna Francy, USGS Ohio Water Science Center, 6480 Doubletree Avenue, Columbus, OH 43229; Phone: (614) 430-7769